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Cyrier Named to Banker and Tradesman's "New Leaders" 2009

Jeremy Cyrier, CCIM is 1 of 29 named to Banker & Tradesman's New Leaders in 2009.  The Banker & Tradesman Publication set out to find leaders at the forefront of cutting edge companies, who are their firm's top performers, and are entrepreneurs with a bent for innovation.  Their work is at the center of their organization's growth. The award was also given to those who have found ways to give back to their larger communities, participating in extracurricular activities and charities. Jeremy Cyrier, CCIM is the principal of MANSARD Commercial Properties, is a member of the CCIM Institute faculty where he teaches Financial Analysis for Commercial Real Estate, acts as Vice President on the New England CCIM Chapter Board of Directors, is a member of the Middlessex Reserve Deputy Sheriff Association, and is a member of the Jay W Levine 2010 Leadership Academy. Get free weekly email updates of this blog.

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How to Make Your Ugly Commercial Real Estate Pretty Again

Do you remember the Seinfeld episode about the ugly baby?  Jerry and Elaine were invited to visit their friends after they'd just given birth to a new baby.  When Jerry and Elaine arrived to congratulate the couple, they looked down and were appalled at what they saw.  The baby was butt ugly.  After recoiling,  they faked their way through the conversation with the new parents, telling them what every parent wants to hear--that their baby is beautiful, charming, looks just like them. What if that baby were your property and you didn't know it? Read more

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Why Understanding Demand is Critical to Success in Commercial Real Estate Investing

A few weeks ago I had the privilege of teaching with one the CCIM Institute's most experienced and knowledgeable instructors.  He has spent a career mastering one of the most important, and often overlooked, components of commercial real estate analysis: identifying and quantifying demand.

He says that demand for space is 80% of the real estate decision and that financial analysis is the other 20%.  Too often, according to my colleague, investors and users focus on the 20% without really digging into what drives the numbers, who's going to be using the space, and why the proposed use makes sense.

Here's an example of why this is so important--overbuilding.  How many developers have you seen in the past 3-4 years losing gobs of money in real estate because of a shift in demand? And do you think the numbers they used are worth anything today? Here's why it matters. Essentially, jobs drive demand for office and industrial space.  As jobs are created, households are created, people get married, have kids and need housing and retail services.  They consequently create a demand for retail space and homes.

So what happens when the jobs go away, as in Massachusetts, which is currently reporting an unemployment rate of 8.6%? Demand for office space and industrial space declines,  creating more vacancies, which leads to a decline in demand for retail space and housing--i.e. a report out this week that multi-family vacancy rates nationwide have it a 22 year high.

The question is, when will the "death spiral" end?  (See Seth Godin's blog). The Death Spiral ends when businesses start reinvesting and hiring.  This is what I tell those who ask me when I think the housing market will recover.  Once the job losses stop and people start feeling more secure about their incomes, they'll start buying lattes and homes again.  Then as companies  ramp up to meet increased demand for their products and services, they'll soak up additional space at lower rates, hire more employees, and we'll see an uptick in consumer spending that will follow the initial consumption uptick of those with job security. My concern, however, is that our government will increase taxes and raise interest rates to pay for their meddling in our private industry, which would forestall the recovery and expansion as well as keep us in a protracted and skittish recovery for years to come.  What do you think? Would you like a demand analysis performed for your properties? If so, email me at Jeremy@Mansardcre.com with the words "How much demand is out there for my property?" in the subject line.  Include your name, when you would like to be called, and the best number to reach you. I will contact you to schedule a time for you to invite me to your office for a free consultation.  If there's a fit, you may retain us to conduct a demand analysis of your properties, their position in your market area, and identification of the top users with contact names and phone numbers to help you gain transparency into your tenant market.  If there isn't a fit, we'll tell you we cannot help and will refer you to another firm that may be a better match. Get free weekly email updates of this blog. About the Author:Jeremy Cyrier, CCIM is a principal with MANSARD Commercial Properties and member of the CCIM Institute faculty. He offers advisory services and brokerage expertise to commercial real estate owners and tenants. You may reach Jeremy at Jeremy@Mansardcre.com.

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What Happens to Market Demand When Life Catches Up?

Jack liked to smoke.  Often.  He'd hang out smoking just at the entrance to the office and would greet me with a casual smile and the seasoned look of a battle hardened real estate broker.  On normal days, I'd stop, stay hello and then go to my desk.

After the World Trade Center attack in 2001, the world seemed to come to a stop.  Everyone stopped and waited to see what was going to happen to the market and overall economy, and seemed equally unwilling to take any risks and get back making money work.  People were just proving that the market responds worse to uncertainty that it does bad news. On a fall day in October, 2001, I pulled into the parking lot and saw Jack smoking on his stoop.  I said hello, stopped, and asked what he thought of everything going on and whether the market would pick back up.  He paused, smirked, and exhaled answering, "Of course.  That's what I love about real estate.  Someone's always getting married, divorced, having a baby, getting hired, laid off, or just ready to retire." Basically, the world may stop, but time and life don't.  Eventually they catch up and give people a  kick in the butt to keep moving. In the  Greater Boston and New England market, the first 6 months felt a lot like the month or two after 9/11.  We're now beginning to see the early stages of activity, which feel a lot like pent up demand to us.  Tenant requirements have been flooding in with immediate occupancy requirements; investors coming back to the market looking to generate higher returns than their ING accounts will pay; and sellers going out of business needing to sell fast and hoping to walk with some cash. What are you seeing?  Anything shaking loose? Get free weekly email updates of this blog. About the Author:Jeremy Cyrier, CCIM is a principal with MANSARD Commercial Properties and member of the CCIM Institute faculty. He offers advisory services and brokerage expertise to commercial real estate owners and tenants. You may reach Jeremy at Jeremy@Mansardcre.com.